Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether he has made an assessment of the accuracy of projected future rail passenger volumes made by consultancy Steer in its report entitled Research on Long-Term Passenger Demand Growth, published on 19 February 2024.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

The Department is aware and has reviewed the report entitled Research on Long-Term Passenger Demand Growth by Steer. Rail demand is uncertain – especially over the long term. DfT produces a range of different future rail demand and revenue scenarios in line with our published guidance which have a number of uses including supporting investment decisions. The projections produced by RIA/Steer are not aligned methodologically with the Department’s Common Analytical Scenarios (CAS).

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of the change in the number of people travelling by passenger rail from 2024 to (a) 2030, (b) 2040 and (c) 2050.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

In line with our published guidance, the Department has developed a number of possible rail demand forecasts in both the medium and long term. The Department considers a wide range of evidence for our project appraisals and policy decisions.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what the projected passenger number were in the business case for each (a) new station and (b) reopened rail line in the last 10 years; and what the actual passenger numbers were in each case 12 months after they opened.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

Benefit Cost Ratios (BCRs) within the economic case are only one element of decision-making on schemes and should be considered alongside the other cases in the five case business model used in Government (strategic, economic, financial, commercial and management cases). Therefore we do not routinely make BCRs available.

Details of Rail infrastructure and assets lists new stations opened in the financial year can be found here https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/infrastructure-and-emissions/rail-infrastructure-and-assets/ Not all of these were promoted by the Department.

Estimates of station usage contains annual estimates of the number of entries/exits and interchanges at each station in Great Britain https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/estimates-of-station-usage

In practice it can take a number of years for long term demand patterns to emerge for new stations. The Department (and bodies who promote their own schemes) have a long standing and established appraisal framework to help scheme promoters forecast passenger demand of new stations and lines. We are continuing to monitor our framework and use evaluation to understand the impacts of schemes.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether his Department plans to publish the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook is owned by the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council, of which the Department is a member. As per the Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme rules only members and associate members of the scheme are granted a licence to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what assessment he has made of trends in the level of passenger demand for train services across (a) England, (b) Wales, and (c) Scotland.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

Annual statistics on passenger rail usage at national and region level are published by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR). These include journeys within and between England, Scotland, and Wales. The latest statistical release provides estimates for April 2021 to March 2022: Regional rail usage (orr.gov.uk)

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask His Majesty's Government what growth in rail passenger numbers along the main line between Penzance and Plymouth was achieved by the introduction of a 30-minute frequency service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)

We do not have a complete set of data to present at this time. We have asked Great Western Railway to write to the Noble Lord when the information is available and this information will be placed in the Libraries of the House.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether his Department has made an assessment on the variation in railway passenger numbers on different weekdays; and if he will make it his Department's policy to mandate train companies to introduce a different timetable with more capacity on the days with more passengers.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

Industry is already running more trains on working days, when more passengers are likely to travel to and from work, and on Saturdays, when many passengers use the railway for leisure. The train operating companies will use the December 2022 timetable change to make significant changes to the national timetable to improve the service passengers receive, and continue to tailor their offer to demand. These changes are intended to improve performance for passengers and provide services that respond to current passenger demand and suit the needs of local communities.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what the trends in the level of rail patronage have been in the latest period for which data is available; and whether his Department has taken recent steps to increase modal shift onto rail.

Answered by Huw Merriman - Minister of State (Department for Transport)

Statistics on the number of rail passenger journeys are published by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR). This data is published on a quarterly basis. Table 1 below presents the number of passenger journeys undertaken in each quarter.

The Department is continuing to work closely with industry to support demand and revenue recovery. For example, the industry has undertaken national marketing targeted at lapsed and potential customers to remind them of the benefits and good value of rail travel.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what steps her Department is taking to help rail companies ensure that passengers are not subject to unfair (a) costs and (b) overcrowded services.

Answered by Kevin Foster

The Government is taking decisive action to reduce the impact inflation will have on rail fares during the cost of living crisis and, in august, we guaranteed we will not be increasing fares by as much as the July RPI figure. We are also again delaying any change to March 2023, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February.

Earlier this year we launched the Great British Rail Sale, the first ever nationwide rail sale. Over 1.3 million tickets were sold, offering around £7million worth of savings for passengers.

There are also several railcards available to passengers which offer discounts against most rail fares.

As the pandemic has changed travel habits, train operators are using this opportunity to reassess their services to ensure they provide rail timetables that meet new passenger travel patterns, are fit for the future, and carefully balance cost, capacity and performance.

The new timetables are demand-led and built with flexibility in mind, so if passenger numbers increase as we continue to recover from the pandemic, we can look to accommodate additional services. Where operators have modified their timetables, the changes will be kept under review and, where appropriate, adjusted to reflect fluctuations in demand.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, pursuant to the Answer of 30 June 2022 to Question 25974 on Passengers, if he will publish the scenarios of possible rail demand developed by his Department to reflect uncertainty, including how passengers respond post-covid-19.

Answered by Wendy Morton

As previously mentioned in line with our published guidance, the Department continues to develop a number of scenarios of possible long-term rail demand to reflect uncertainty including how passengers respond post-covid-19 as well as economic forecasts.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if he will make an estimate of expected rail passenger numbers for the next 12 months.

Answered by Wendy Morton

In line with our published guidance, the Department has developed a number of scenarios of possible rail demand to reflect uncertainty including how passengers respond post-covid-19. The Department considers a wide range of evidence for our project appraisals and policy decisions

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether his Department has taken steps to help prevent incidents of verbal and physical abuse on the rail network.

Answered by Wendy Morton

The rail industry in partnership with the British Transport Police (BTP) are working hard to protect passengers and rail staff and deliver a safer transport network. BTP undertakes a range activity to address violence against staff, including holding a specific work-place violence group with industry to identify and share best practice.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what recent steps he has taken to ensure the personal safety of rail passengers.

Answered by Wendy Morton

The rail industry has a well-established strategy to target personal safety, and the Department works closely with British Transport Police and industry to deliver safer physical environments and operational responses to vulnerability, through both the Secure Stations Scheme, and Safeguarding on Rail Scheme.

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what assessment his Department has made of likely trends in the number of national rail passengers for the following (a) six and (b) 12 months.

Answered by Wendy Morton

In line with our published guidance, the Department has developed a number of scenarios of possible long-term rail demand to reflect uncertainty including how passengers respond post-covid-19 as well as economic forecasts. The Department continues to consider a wide range of evidence for our project appraisals and policy decisions and seeks to use the most up to date inputs to aid in these decisions.

Found: working closely and collaboratively with the Great British Transition Team to co-design the future of our railways